Inadequate and inaccurate history affects the present and the future
People base their preventive actions on previous negative scenarios. If, for example, we build a wall to stop a flood, its strength and height will most likely depend on the last heaviest downpour.
No thanks to the media, there are several misconceptions about the true extent of things and how important or less meaningful they are. Humans try to simplify life by believing in a world that is perfect in their minds. By examining evidence and base rates, it’s known that humans tend to focus on evidence. Simply put, a base rate is a term in statistics that denotes the probability of something. Base rates occur as a result of needing more information. When the data produced is not specific or detailed, base rates come into view, telling the brain to make a conclusion based on assumptions. For example, when you see a pink car, you might assume that its driver is a woman based on the stereotype that pink is a “female” color.
The moment the brain gets more specific information, it changes its focus and concludes evidence rather than the base rate. Placing absolute belief in the conclusion drawn from detailed information can be misleading. Indeed, a tall and thin athlete would most likely play basketball, but it’s not always so.
⚡️When you draw your conclusion from a description of something, there will be times when you will end up making the wrong assumptions.
When it comes to descriptions, adding details is different from being specific. Simply adding elements to a piece of information makes it more likely to be believed, but it doesn’t mean that the data is accurate. In fact, it just resembles a story, which urges people to believe it. However, the idea behind a piece of good information is that it should be precise.
Precision can come in short forms when it comes to describing a scenario. The ability to be specific helps you think quickly.
“If you care about being thought credible and intelligent, do not use complex language where simpler language will do.”
Daniel Kahneman