Statistics help us draw conclusions, but they are not as informative as real-life experiences
If you come from a place where humans don’t eat animals, you would find it hard to believe that humans are responsible for the death of 65% of animals worldwide. Also, regardless of existing facts and statistics, a situation is not always bound to follow a regular pattern. For example, if a tall serial killer has terrorized a community for a year, it doesn’t mean the subsequent death is from the same serial killer. Existing facts help in the absence of any other information.
⚡️Predictions come from a careful study of past events, the current frequency of the same events, and the future possibilities of it happening.
Predictions and forecasts are a part of everyday life. Across all fields of study, experts and professionals make predictions based on calculations and the facts available. You are even doing it in your personal life. We base some predictions on recent occurrences, experiences, or familiarity; by seeing specific cues, you can deduce what is bound to happen next.
However, there are several other things that you can’t only predict or forecast by showing bias. To produce unbiased predictions, you must start with the average information available and then gradually work toward getting more data from existing guidelines, statistics, and facts.
Correcting your intuitive predictions is System 2’s job. System 2 is responsible for the hard work, so it collects information from what you have experienced and what you’re experiencing. If not controlled, intuitive predictions can cause problems. It’s not easy to stop, but you can resist its dominance by training yourself to identify intuitive predictions. You can control your thinking by maintaining your vigilance against them.
The illusion of understanding determines and influences how people view and approach life. People rewrite gathered knowledge to fit certain agendas. This illusion only talks about something that happened while overlooking what didn’t.
These biased narratives have created the faux notion that as long as they are familiar with the past, they can shape and reshape the future. However, how best can a future be modeled when the knowledge about history is biased and twisted to suit certain narratives?
Did you know? According to Media Statistics, 52% of Americans regularly encounter fake news online.